It’s May and that must mean it’s time to dust off the old blog for my annual preview of the runners and riders at the Eurovision Song Contest.

And it’s a strong year! Although rather than a handful of standout excellent songs, it’s more than across the board nearly everything is good even if it isn’t great. There’s diversity of styles and performances (although less so on demographics than last year, which is disappointing) with something for everyone.

Tonight is the first semi-final which UK viewers can watch on the recently resurrected BBC Three. So who will you see?

Albania

• The song: Sekret – Ronela Hajati
• The pros: An up tempo ethno-bop with everything thrown at it from energetic choreography and multiple languages to big vocals.
• The cons: A slow start (depending on the final version of the song they’ve gone for).
• Chance of qualifying: 65%

Latvia

• The song: Eat Your Salad – Citi Zēni
• The pros: A talented, charismatic group (check out their TikTok channel where they’ve been uploading impressive covers of the other acts) whose fun song has a proper environmental message at its heart.
• The cons: With lots going on they need strong camerawork to catch their energy, and the strength of their amazing opening line “Instead of meat I eat veggies and pussy” is rather lost by their not being allowed to use the last word.
• Chance of qualifying: 60%

Lithuania

• The song: Sentimentai – Monika Liu
• The pros: A gorgeous jazz lounge vibe effortlessly delivered by an experienced singer-songwriter.
• The cons: It’s much the same for the whole three minutes.
• Chance of qualifying: 50%

Switzerland

• The song: Boys Do Cry – Marius Bear
• The pros: Marius has a good voice and will perform this well. Juries will probably go for it.
• The cons: The lyrics are twee. The staging is twee.
• Chance of qualifying: 50%

Slovenia

• The song: Disko – LPS (aka Last Pizza Slice)
• The pros: A charming group of teenagers performing a self-referential song and looking like they’re playing a big budget school prom.
• The cons: It’s not the catchiest melody and unless you speak Slovenian you’ll miss the meaning.
• Chance of qualifying: 35%

Ukraine

• The song: Stefania – Kalush Orchestra
• The pros: A simple chorus you can single along to even if you don’t speak Ukrainian. A memorable look. Great flute work. One member of 2021 favourites Go_A. And the fact they are here at all.
• The cons: A Ukrainian rap you might not follow.
• Chance of qualifying: 90%

Bulgaria

• The song: Intention – Intelligent Music Project
• The pros: Competent rock band playing an OK rock song. Two-time former Bulgarian representative Stoyan on drums.
• The cons: A title that you’ll blink and miss in the lyrics. It’s no more exciting than an OK rock song.
• Chance of qualifying: 50%

Netherlands

• The song: De Diepte – S10
• The pros: Dutch is back at Eurovision, but with a choice of lyrics that make you feel you understand in English (which worked well for Bobbysocks). S10’s voice, especially on her “oooohs”.
• The cons: There’s nothing exciting in the staging so it’s all in the song and how its sung (which worked well for Barbara Pravi).
• Chance of qualifying: 75%

Moldova

• The song: Trenulețul – Zdob și Zdub & Frații Advahov
• The pros: A joyful song about a train. And folklore, and rock and/or roll. Except it’s actually about the complex relationship between Moldova and Romania, their similarities and differences and ongoing debate about their potential unification. But also a train.
• The cons: Could end up feeling a bit shambolic. The Eurovision version seems to have lost a bit of the vim of the studio version (although it apparently “went off” as the kids say at the jury semi-final last night).
• Chance of qualifying: 55%

Portugal

• The song: Saudade, Saudade – MARO
• The pros: A gentle song with support from a talented group of women who join MARO in an intimate circle on stage. Despite the title (an untranslatable word for longing for something or someone missed), there are English lyrics.
• The cons: Like Lithuania, there isn’t much development over the three minutes. It risks being forgotten after Moldova’s runaway train.
• Chance of qualifying: 45%

Croatia

• The song: Guilty Pleasure – Mia Dimšić
• The pros: Contemporary pop and pointed lyrics from a talented singer-songwriter.
• The cons: Feels overstaged with a risk the dancers distract rather than add. It’s a good song but maybe not standout enough to get people to pick the up the phones to vote for it.
• Chance of qualifying: 35%

Denmark

• The song: The Show – Reddi
• The pros: A female rock group. A song that builds. A writing team with connections to lots of previous Danish entries.
• The cons: They aren’t allowed to play their instruments live. The song perhaps builds too slowly. Lots of previous Danish entries didn’t do well.
• Chance of qualifying: 40%

Austria

• The song: Halo – LUM!X feat. Pia Maria
• The pros: A really strong EDM track. The studio version is a full-on banger.
• The cons: Eurovision songs with a DJ as the centre of attention don’t have a good track record even if it does give the song a contemporary feel. And then there are the hit and miss vocals. Pia Maria is young and inexperienced and quite exposed here and I really hope her vocals land because that’s what will determine whether this qualifies.
• Chance of qualifying: 45%

Iceland

• The song: Með hækkandi sól – Systur
• The pros: Vocals are not a worry for these three sisters whose harmonies are incredibly tight. Their musical family background really shines through.
• The cons: The song itself is another gentle ballad that might struggle to inspire people to vote for it, especially in competition with Portugal.
• Chance of qualifying: 40%

Greece

• The song: Die Together – Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord
• The pros: This is how you build over your three minutes. A really stripped back start leading into some big vocals. Staging that focuses on Amanda – who is half Norwegian which may help pick up some Nordic votes. If there is an unexpected dark horse winner, it could be this.
• The cons: Very few. There is a risk this feels too cold – maybe a song to respect rather than love.
• Chance of qualifying: 90%

Norway

• The song: Give That Wolf A Banana – Subwoolfer
• The pros: Speaking of Norway, they’re up next represented by yellow alien wolves from the Moon. By far the most WTF of the entries tonight, there is a lot to unpack. These guys, whose real identities have been hidden ever since they were announced for Norway’s national final, have been churning out social media content with way more effort than you would expect for what initially looked like a joke entry. But the song, however absurd, is incredibly catchy and memorable with fun choreography.
• The cons: The EBU seem to have been very lenient with the amount of vocal that is on the backing track here which is borderline taking the piss. It also risks coming across as too silly to some of the audience – although as you can only vote for and not against songs that might not matter.
• Chance of qualifying: 65%

Armenia

• The song: Snap – Rosa Linn
• The pros: Another contemporary pop song performed well. Inventive staging that should be really effective. A good position in the running order.
• The cons: Another one that is perhaps more radio friendly than it is voter bait. The staging could look a bit contrived.
• Chance of qualifying: 55%

See the people behind each performance in semi-final 1 on my Six on Stage website.

My own favourites from this semi are Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Croatia, Austria and Norway so I will be cheering for them in the arena. I’m sitting in the front block to the left of the stage so keep an eye out!

This Thursday sees another 17 acts take to the stage to compete for a spot in Saturday’s final.

Sadly, after putting in great performances, six countries had to leave the competition on Tuesday night. And so, we say farewell to North Macedonia, Australia, Ireland, Romania, Slovenia and, surprisingly, Croatia. I had 9/10 qualifiers right in my own predictions (a rare occurrence), with Croatia taking the spot that went to Israel. One of the Big Four Bangers had to go and there was little to choose between them.

With one more act taking part in the second semi-final competition is fiercer – although there is perhaps a little less competition vying with the best of the bunch.

1. San Marino – Ever since Senhit dropped her track Adrenalina, one of the biggest questions of this year’s Contest has been will “feat. Flo Rida” be the case in the live performance too? Special dispensation was given for a stand-in rapper to take part in last week’s rehearsals and now it’s been confirmed that Mr Rida is indeed in Rotterdam. He’s a big name and could propel this high, but let’s not forget the song itself: even without the celebrity addition, this is the best entry San Marino have ever sent to Eurovision.
2. Estonia – Over time there is a risk that the supposedly doomed number 2 spot in the running order becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the broadcaster assigning it to the dreariest ballad with the lowest chance of winning. And that’s what’s happened here.
3. Czech Republic – This is a bop with a distinct sound that sets it apart from everything else in the competition and Benny Cristo is arguably the most charismatic performer in the Contest. It’s by no means a dead cert to make the final but it absolutely deserves to be.
4. Greece – A twisted Eurovision Henry Ford appears to have decreed that this year’s staging is “Any colour as long as it’s pink.” This is more at the purple end of the spectrum but it’s still very much of the 80s neon feel we’ll see elsewhere. This song does nothing for me but everyone’s going to be distracted by the…inventive green screen choreography.
5. Austria – I have a lot more affection for this sadboi ballad than other Eurovision fans. It has a funereal tone that maybe isn’t ideal when we’re still all trying to cope with The Event, but as part of an overall mix of songs I think it’s absolutely fine. The second Amen in this year’s competition, the second presented by an excellent vocalist, and probably the second to get knocked out.
6. Poland – This is a strange one. The song is – how you say? – “basic”. The staging, with more pinks and 80s neon, is A Bit Much. The strength of the vocal remains to be seen. Overall it’s like Jon Ola Sand has come back with an entry of his own. It’s probably not going to the final. (NB: In Rafał we have the first act for tonight who wasn’t due to represent their country in 2020 – if you don’t count “feat. Flo Rida”.)
7. Moldova – If Croatia was the shock non-qualifier banger on Tuesday, Moldova could well be the banger we lose tonight. After capturing fans’ attention with a music video in which singer Natalia literally eats a man’s cakehole, the unimaginative staging has been a letdown. Coupled with a song, Sugar, that’s a bit too manufactured and, well, saccharine, I wouldn’t count on this making it through. If it does, it’ll be the lower banger quotient of this semi that helps it.
8. Iceland – The Icelandic legend that is Daði Freyr is back alongside his entirely made-up group Gagnamagnið. So much effort has gone into this. A crowdsourced choir of 1,000 people to do prerecorded backing vocals. Beautiful homemade “instruments”. The latest evolution of his iconic shirt design. Video graphics that tie in with a smartphone game featuring the band. And a song, the third in a trilogy, that reflects on a decade with his wife (who is also on stage and heavily pregnant). It’s not fair to compare the song to last year’s Think About Things, which has already become a modern classic. Instead, compare it to the other songs tonight, and on that basis it goes straight to the final. (NB: A positive coronavirus test sadly means this won’t now be performed live. An as-live rehearsal recording from last week will be used, which should be 98% as good.)
9. Serbia – The Contest’s only girl group this year is Hu-hu-hu-hurricane and they have not come to mess about. Treading ground similar to last year’s Hasta La Vista, Loco Loco is a ballsy banger. And, unlike every other banger, there are no additional dancers: the stage belongs to these three women alone.
10. Georgia – Are you attracted by the thought of a serial killer locking eyes with you for three minutes while he sings a dull yet unpredictable song about you? Then you’re in luck. I will say this for Tornike: he confounds expectations. Especially if your expectation is to see this on Saturday.
11. Albania – Albania always do Albania and good for them. Karma is a midtempo number well sung but also broadly forgettable among everything else on offer tonight. (NB: Anxhela is a new representative for 2021 having won her country’s national selection.)
12. Portugal – The Belgium of semi-final 2, at almost the same point in the running order, The Black Mamba are an experienced band who know exactly what they’re doing. It’s a simple melody with a solid guitar break although the vocal style might not be for everyone. It’s a shame the group didn’t bring the funkier sound from some of their other songs but I think this might just sneak through to the final via the same demographic who voted for Hooverphonic. (NB: The first entry from Portugal sung entirely in English and another new act who’ve come through a national final.)
13. Bulgaria – If Portugal are the Belgium of semi-final 2, Bulgaria are the Romania, in exactly the same running order spot. The difference is that Victoria is going to the final. She’s an excellent performer and the staging is calm but effective, focusing on and amplifying her and her song. As with Iceland, don’t compare her song with last year’s; compare it with the competition.
14. Finland – Blind Channel didn’t just beat last year’s chosen act Aksel in Finland’s national final: they got more public votes than all the other competitors added together. That’s a lot of support to have going into Eurovision. This is loud, aggressive rock but also melodic (the band call it “violent pop”) and should easily appeal to enough of the televote audience in particular to qualify.
15. Latvia – I love Samanta Tīna. She’s been trying to get to Eurovision for years, having entered both the Latvian and Lithuanian national finals. She made it through last year with Still Breathing, which kept things on just the right side of too absurd, but she’s gone bigger this year with The Moon Is Rising. I fear it’s passed the sweet spot where inventive and accessible meet and will deter as many people as it attracts. She will put on a show though and I really hope she does better than I expect.
16. Switzerland – After Malta from semi-final 1, we have another of the favourites in 16th spot, with a completely different type of song. As last year, Gjon’s Tears has brought us a Francophone ballad that showcases his high vocal range and emotive delivery. But whereas we all assumed this would be performed sitting at a piano à la 2019 winner Duncan Laurence, this is a choreographed staging including balletic movement from Gjon. I’m fascinated to see how it works: it could detract from the song but it could equally propel him back up to favourite. Either way, he’s qualifying.
17. Denmark – After Gjon’s monochrome sincerity, the neon is back for the gloriously 1980s closing number from Denmark who, as if it really were Eurovision in the eighties, are singing in Danish alongside a line-up of on-stage backing vocalists. Fyr og Flamme (“Fire and Flame”) are another national final winner who weren’t on the 2020 roster. Conventional wisdom says this is a qualification risk, not helped by the language choice, but I love it and I know so many people who also love it that I can’t believe we won’t see its joy again on Saturday.

The seven countries I expect to go out are Albania, Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Poland and Georgia. If you want to save them, you can try as semi-final 2 is the one in which the UK gets to vote. I expect to be dialling up for San Marino, Iceland and Denmark.

So it’s been a while since we’ve done this. The 2020 Eurovision Song Contest was cancelled but this year it’s back and more than half of the artists taking part are returnees from 2020.

The quality of this year’s songs is particularly good but I’ll caveat that by saying that’s on average with a smaller standard deviation. While the overall quality is high, there are fewer songs that immediately stand out as great (or bad).

Here’s a look at who’s taking part in the first semi-final on Tuesday night. Hot takes incoming!

1. Lithuania – The Roop were one of the 2020 favourites and they’re back this year with an even better song. They’ve managed to incorporate elements of their 2020 choreography in a way that feels like a respectful nod rather than an imitation. Discoteque may be inspired by the Covid-19 pandemic but it’s an energetic bop that deserves to give Lithuania their best ever result.
2. Slovenia – As a way to enable delegations to keep their numbers to a minimum if they wanted, pre-recorded backing vocals are allowed at Eurovision this year. Ana Soklič, another 2020 returnee, is one of the acts taking full advantage of this, with a gospel choir ready at the push of a button. Amen isn’t a hugely strong entry and I don’t expect it to make it to the final, but if it does it will be on the back of Ana’s powerful vocals.
3. Russia – A number of artists have taken unfair stick from commentators in their home countries this year. Manizha is a human rights advocate who was born in what is now Tajikistan. That combined with a song whose message promotes women’s liberation in Russia has annoyed the kind of nationalists who deserve to be annoyed. For that reason, I hope this does qualify – but I’m afraid the song itself is something I’d actively turn off if it came on the radio.
4. Sweden – They’re the country so many other Eurovision entrants aspire to be and once again they’ve brought a performance polished to within an inch of its life. Teenage singer Tusse is a great performer who should have a big career ahead of him but Voices risks being almost too clinical and by the numbers to do better than their fifth placing in 2019.
5. Australia – Coronavirus restrictions mean returning 2020 artist Montaigne hasn’t made the long journey to Rotterdam and instead will appear in a prerecorded “live-to-tape” performance. Her song, Technicolour, is a bit of a hot mess but the preview clips suggest they’ve gone with the best possible version of it. Could that save it from being Australia’s first non-qualifier?
6. North Macedonia – Vasil is another 2020 entrant who’s returned and, like Manizha, has been subject to unwarranted negative press at home that managed to combine nationalism with more than a hint of homophobia. But after a wobble the broadcaster stood behind him and he’s able to perform his musical theatre 11 o’clock number Here I Stand on the Eurovision stage. As with fellow former Yugoslav republic Slovenia, I don’t see this making the final but if it does it will be on the back of Vasil’s vocal performance, which it feels designed to showcase.
7. Ireland – Lesley Roy is back from 2020 too, this time with the upbeat pop track Maps. Rehearsal footage suggests this will have the most complex staging of this year’s Contest. That could be a spectacle that propels this into this final – or it could end up distracting from the song itself.
8. Cyprus – It was the church in Cyprus that campaign against El Diablo, having taken the title just a little bit too literally. But Elena confirmed that when she sings that she is in love with the devil, it’s actually a metaphor rather than a confession of Satan worship, so I hope that’s put everyone’s minds at rest. After a misstep with their 2020 selection, Cyprus are back with another Fuego-style banger. Correct decision.
9. Norway – This is a funny one. Fallen Angel is simple and catchy. It dominated the Melodi Grand Prix competition in Norway, beating fan favourites KEiiNO thanks to singer-songwriter TIX’s huge popularity. But it remains to be seen how well that translates to an international audience, especially with a stage persona that borders on pastiche. It will at least be memorable – although the producers have cheekily put the two angel/demon stagings back to back.
10. Croatia – Albina won her country’s national selection to bring the second female-singer-with-4/5-dancers banger to semi-final 1. Tick-Tock is arguably the best of the four (four!) but it remains to be seen if they can all make it through or if the votes will split and let something more downbeat through at their expense.
11. Belgium – Hooverphonic are by some way the most experienced live performers here, which isn’t just a backhanded way of saying they’re older – although they are, among a very young crowd. The Wrong Place has a distinctly different sound and a very straightforward staging. That could make it stand out and appeal to (particularly) the older part of the audience – or it could sink without a trace. NB: Only two-thirds of Hooverphonic are returning from 2020.
12. Israel – Eden Alene returns from 2020 with another uptempo number – our third female-singer-with-4/5-dancers banger. It’s not the most memorable song which the team seem to have attempted to mitigate by adding a set of whistle notes to the climax. It’s an impressive vocal feat that Eden seems more than capable of achieving – but, personally, I think they sound horrible.
13. Romania – It almost seems like a self-fulfilling prophesy if you call your song Amnesia but it looks like this is doomed to be forgotten. Roxen is another 2020 act back for 2021 with her low key style. Sadly I don’t see this having any of the ingredients required to take her into the final.
14. Azerbaijan – Last year Efendi was going to bring a song called Cleopatra. This year she’s back with Mata Hari. I almost hope that the next 10 years see her bring an increasing array of songs about women from history. Unfortunately, where The Roop managed to build on their 2020 song, Efendi has knocked it off. The sound is much too similar and the lyrics even acknowledge that Mata Hari is “like Cleopatra”. The fourth and least deserving of our bangers.
15. Ukraine – Шум (Shum) is something of a fan favourite. It’s a mashup of dance music and Ukrainian folk singing which certainly distinguishes it from its competition thanks to its unique sound. It doesn’t appeal to me but I can at least see why people like it.
16. Malta – Ever since Destiny won the Junior Eurovision Song Contest in 2015, there has been an expectation that she would go on to represent her country in the adult version. That chance was denied her last year when the Contest was cancelled but she’s back this year and it’s with a better song. Je Me Casse was an early favourite and while the choice of staging has seen its odds lengthen it’s definitely still worth an each-way punt. It’s closing the semi-final for a reason.

Ten songs will go through to the final on Saturday. Before their disqualification, Belarus had been drawn to take part in this show too, which means six rather than seven songs will be eliminated. That eases up the pressure on the other acts but only very slightly.

Tonight it’s the grand final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest in Lisbon – and it’s on of the most open fields in years.

Before I look at the 26 finalists, it’s worth remembering the 17 who didn’t make it through. They all worked hard and they didn’t necessarily do anything wrong. It could have been the song, the staging, the specific competition and electorate in their semi-final – or just bad luck. All the acts have been travelling thousands of miles meeting fans, promoting their entries and singing their hearts out so hooray for them.

That’s worth saying ahead of the sarky comments I’ll be posting on Twitter later…

This year’s finalists are a brilliantly mixed bag so there really should be something for everyone. You can read my thoughts on them back when they were just done semi-finalists too, in heat 1 and heat 2.

Ukraine: Under the Ladder by Mélovin

A great way to open the show and the first of many pyromaniacs to take to the stage tonight. It’s rocky, gothy and ridiculous, but all in support of a decent song.

Why it should win: Pushing all the rock buttons.

Spain: Tu Canción by Amaia & Alfred

A lovely couple from Spain singing about love. That’s pretty much all there is to it.

Why it should win: They’re so sweet.

Slovenia: Hvala, Ne! by Lea Sirk

This explodes into life before settling into a funky if slightly ineffectual rhythm. But then it divides the audience by releasing the worst gimmick ever seen at Eurovision.

Why it should win: Audacity.

Lithuania: When We’re Old by Ieva Zasimauskaitė

A super soft ballad the Ieva carries off beautifully. And if you know the man she meets at the end is her real life husband, it’s all more poignant.

Why it should win: Both Ieva and her song are adorable.

Austria: Nobody But You by Cesár Sampson

Steely-eyed Cesár arrives on a spaceship with a gaggle of gospel backing singers to deliver a solid piece of contemporary pop.

Why it should win: That chorus.

Estonia: La Forza by Elina Nechayeva

Her voice. Her dress. Her high notes. If you’re into opera, this may not seen anything special, but it’s a tour de force vocally perfectly reflected in her amazing outfit. Will the juries love its aura of credibility?

Why it should win: That voice.

Norway: That’s How You Write A Song by Alexander Rybak

There has been a lot of very reasonable criticism about this by the numbers attempt by Rybak to garner his second Eurovision win. But for all that it has at least partially worked, getting him to the final and for a time favourite in the odds. It’s trite as anything but you can’t blame the guy for trying.

Why it should win: Carefully ticking all the boxes.

Portugal: O Jardim by Cláudia Pascoal

I wasn’t a great fan of this but it’s warmed on me every time I’ve seen it, plus Cláudia and songwriter Isaura seem a joy. It’s simple and probably won’t do all that well but it’s better than last year’s Portuguese entry and that won…

Why it should win: It’s beautifully sung.

United Kingdom: Storm by SuRie

We’re a self-critical country so there’s a lot of debate among fans. Was it the right song? Is it the right staging? There’s definitely one sensible choice: putting SuRie in the spotlight. She wowed the crowd at the Brighton selection show and has been performing this flawlessly (albeit modulated down a little!) ever since, as well as being a fantastic ambassador for the UK and the Contest. As usual, it’s not good to raise UK expectations but this is more than respectable and we should be proud of it.

Why it should win: Because SuRie is great.

Serbia: Nova Deca by Sanja Ilić and Balkanika

When this gets going, it’s good fun, even though I have no idea what they’re singing. Sanja’s vocals devotedly work more than the ladies’ though which makes this hit and miss overall.

Why it should win: Bringing the traditional ethnic sound back to Eurovision.

Germany: You Let Me Walk Alone by Michael Schulte

This is a touching solo number flawlessly performed by the ginger German. In a year where background video screens are banned, Michael has cheekily brought along an inflatable backdrop onto which twee graphics are projected. They’re unnecessary and rather on the nose, but it’s hard to say they’re not effective at making this as heartrending as possible.

Why it should win: You need a heart of stone not to be affected by it.

Albania: Mall by Eugent Bushpepa

I’ve never got around to finding out what this is about (sorry) bruises it just doesn’t grab me. It’s another rock entry and one that’s all about Eugent’s live performance.

Why it should win: He knows how to sing, man.

France: Mercy by Madame Monsieur

It’s unlikely that the message of this song (about a child born at sea, I think) will come across to the casual viewer but you’re assured that you won’t forget the title as you hear it many times. It’s in French but mostly school level thankfully and overall this is a confident, low-fi entry performed well by the two Frenchest people you will ever see at Eurovision.

Why it should win: That hand movement.

Czech Republic: Lie to Me by Mikolas Josef

With a very different sound and some gloriously eccentric lyrics (“eat my spaghetti”, “set my camel in the mood”), Mikolas is an eccentric bundle of fun. What’s in his backpack? Will he bring a camel? His stage performance has been hampered by an injury during rehearsals, but he seems recovered and is bringing energy if not backflips anymore.

Why it should win: A triumph over adversity.

Denmark: Higher Ground by Rasmussen

It’s about time a Nordic country sent some Vikings to Eurovision. These guys look ominous, huffing and puffing and marching about the stage, but you know they wouldn’t hurt a fly – not least because their song is a pacifist anthem draped in the garb of pillaging marauders.

Why it should win: It’s got a really good message but also beards.

Australia: We Got Love by Jessica Mauboy

I love Jessica. I love this song. I wish her vocals didn’t sometimes sound a little off because I am longing for this to do well. When she hits it, she really hits it. Watching the semi-final at home, it wasn’t quite there; last night in the hall at the jury final, she sounded terrific. I hope she nails it tonight. It’s a standard pop song but it’s really well done and let’s not complain about good pop in Eurovision, eh?

Why it should win: It’s going to be a Eurovision dancefloor classic (and of course Australia needs to win soon).

Finland: Monsters by Saara Aalto

This is pop too but brasher and really going for it with the staging. There’s spinning (lifted from the staging of one of her other Finnish selection songs), dancing, dropping, and backing troupe dressed only borderline fascist. Saara clearly loves Eurovision and I hope she gets a good result.

Why it should win: She took three good songs to the Finnish selection.

Bulgaria: Bones by Equinox

This supergroup still feels like less than the sum of their parts but if you like it dark and broody, they are serving that in spades. These are talented vocalists with some sharp harmonies and Bulgaria clearly have their sights on winning one day soon – but probably not tonight.

Why it should win: Those harmonies.

Moldova: My Lucky Day by DoReDoS

God, I love DoReDos. This was lightweight in the best kind of way even before they added the staging; now they’re pulling off the song and a little dance routine dressed in their flag’s colours and while acting out a Whitehall farce. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched their rehearsal clips. The spirit of 1981’s Bucks Fizz is here in 2018 and thank goodness for them that.

Why it should win: The most fun item on the menu.

Sweden: Dance You Off by Bejamin Ingrosso

The Swedes know what they’re doing. This is Justin Timberlake in Tron and it’s been polished within an inch of its life. It comes with a good pedigree having of course already won Melodifestivalen (and Benjamin’s aunt having already won Eurovision!) but they’ve tweaked the staging so that he is warmer and engages more with the audience. They’re probably not set for a win but the Swedes remain at the top of their game.

Why it should win: It’s like watching a music video.

Hungary: Viszlát nyár by AWS

That screeching of metal is AWS setting the pyro to 11 and charging around stage like there’s no tomorrow. You’ll either like this or you won’t but as metal goes, they make a very good fist of it – while making Lordi look like Brotherhood of Man.

Why it should win: It’s the metallest thing ever to hit a Eurovision stage.

Israel: Toy by Netta

Netta’s arrived with a feminist pop song accentuated by chicken noises, vocal loops and dancing cat toys. It’s bravura genius although it’s never quite translated on stage as well as it did in those early “WTF?!” studio versions. It totally catches the ethos of Eurovision.

Why it should win: She’s absolutely unique.

Netherlands: Outlaw in ‘Em by Waylon

The Netherlands has an obsession with sending folk and country songs to Eurovision that I just don’t get. Waylon is partly responsible, having come second as part of The Common Linnets in 2014 with a song that everyone seemed to love. (I didn’t and was more than happy for Conchita to beat it.) I actually prefer this, despite some contrived lyrics (In Eurovision? Never!) and he can certainly hold his own.

Why it should win: Hmm. He’s got presence?

Ireland: Together by Ryan O’Shaughnessy

This was promoted by a beautiful video of a couple of guys dancing in Dublin. The Irish team have incorporated that into the staging and it works seamlessly. It’s a little distracting but then distracting from the song isn’t a bad thing. It’s a servicable if weirdly falsetto ballad but the presentation lifts it hugely. China’s having their EBU contract cancelled as a result of blurring out the dancers has given this a burst of publicity that has sent it shooting up the odds.

Why it should win: It made me cry live. Twice. And I don’t even like it much.

Cyprus: Fuego by Eleni Foureira

Last year, Portugal won with a slow ballad. The year before, Ukraine won with a slow ballad. Wouldn’t it be nice if this year we went down the 100% fullscale pop banger route? Eleni certainly thinks so. This is by no means the most musically accomplished nor the most original entry but by George it’s on fire as good as its name. The outfits; the dance routine; the hair flick. This has all the ingredients to go the whole way if that’s the mood the voting public is in.

Why it should win: It’s time for a banger (and Cyprus has never won).

Italy: Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente by Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro

Cyprus should’ve been the big finale. Instead we have this. There are a lot of words in here and alas some of them are on the screen, getting in the way of the action (such as it is). There’s a message in here somewhere but it’s lost in the two guys’ angry expressions that make it seem like they don’t want to be there.

Why it should win: Urgh. Let’s say because of the message.

There you go. 26 songs. More than 20 justifiable winners in the right year with the wind blowing in the right direction. In practice, we’re probably looking at Cyprus, Estonia, Ireland or Estonia. But it’s still hard to completely write off Hungary, Israel, Norway, Sweden, France, Spain or Germany. The voting is going to be exciting. Long. And exciting.